Te\u015fekk\u00fcrler Moody\u2019s
\nBizi bir dertten kurtard\u0131n. Not art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n g\u00fcnden beri Hasan Cemal gibileri ha bug\u00fcn ha yar\u0131n notumuzu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeni bekliyordu. Nihayet karar\u0131n\u0131 verdin.
\nAncak\u2026
\nNot art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda asgari \u00fccret 800 TL\u2019ydi, notumuz d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde 1300 TL\u2026
\nNot art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda cari a\u00e7\u0131k y\u00fczde 10\u2019lara \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131, not d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fczde y\u00fczde 4,5\u2019lara indi\u2026
\nNot art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda faizler y\u00fczde 5\u2019lerden y\u00fczde 12\u2019lere t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131, not d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde 12\u2019lerden 7\u2019lere d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u2026
\nNot art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda emekli maa\u015flar\u0131na zam yapamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131k, not d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde emekli maa\u015flar\u0131 hayli artt\u0131.
\nNot art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda gezi eylemleri ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f, k\u00f6pr\u00fc baraj yap\u0131lmas\u0131 engellenmek istenmi\u015fti, not d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde Yavuz Sultan Selim, Osman Gazi K\u00f6pr\u00fcleri hizmete a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u2026
\nNot art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda FET\u00d6\u2019 c\u00fcler at ko\u015fturuyordu, not d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fczde temizleniyor\u2026
\nNotumuzu art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kredi kart\u0131 taksit say\u0131s\u0131 9\u2019a d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, \u015fimdi taksit say\u0131s\u0131 art\u0131yor\u2026
\nH\u00fck\u00fcmet b\u00fct\u00e7e fazlas\u0131 veriyor, Moody\u2019s not indiriyor,
\nH\u00fck\u00fcmet otomatik bireysel emeklilik fonu kurarak tasarruflar\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor, Moody\u2019s not indiriyor,
\nStratejik altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131, sermaye piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in Varl\u0131k Fonu kuruluyor, Moody\u2019s not indiriyor.
\nT\u00fcrkiye 27 \u00e7eyrekte kesintisiz b\u00fcy\u00fcyor, Moody\u2019s not indiriyor.
\nBa\u015fbakan Binali Y\u0131ld\u0131r\u0131m te\u015fvik paketi a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor, Moody\u2019s not indiriyor.
\nT\u00fcrkiye kenetleniyor FET\u00d6 darbe giri\u015fimini engelliyor, Moody\u2019s not indiriyor.
\nT\u00fcrkiye DAE\u015e mevzilerini vuruyor, Suriye s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131ndan ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctlerini s\u00f6k\u00fcyor, Moody\u2019s not indiriyor.
\nBinali Y\u0131ld\u0131r\u0131m, d\u00fc\u015fmanlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 azaltaca\u011f\u0131z, dostlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131z diyor, Moody\u2019s not indiriyor.
\nRusya\u2019yla ili\u015fkilerimiz normalle\u015fiyor, Moody\u2019s not indiriyor.
\nBu nas\u0131l not ki, T\u00fcrkiye safralar\u0131ndan kurtulduk\u00e7a notu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor?
\nNotumuzu yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir d\u00fczeye \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131n 2013 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana ba\u015f\u0131m\u0131za gelmeyen kalmad\u0131. Sen notumuzu y\u00fckselttin, Gezi olaylar\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131lar. Notumuzu yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir seviyede tuttun, FET\u00d6 \u2018n\u00fcn 17\/25 Aral\u0131k H\u00fck\u00fcmeti devirme plan\u0131 devreye sokuldu. Sen hala T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir seviyede g\u00f6r\u00fcyordun, bu kez 15 Temmuz darbe giri\u015fimiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131k.
\nSen yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye yat\u0131r\u0131m falan yap\u0131lm\u0131yor. Bilakis elimizdekileri de al\u0131p g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcyorlar.
\nBizim iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar da tela\u015fa kap\u0131l\u0131p kendilerini fazla \u00fczmesinler. Zira Moody\u2019s s\u0131cak paray\u0131 nereye g\u00f6t\u00fcrece\u011fini kendi de bilmiyor. Notu A olan \u00fclkeler paray\u0131 negatif faizle kullan\u0131yor. Notu B olan \u00fclkeler i\u00e7inde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye de\u011fil de Uganda\u2019ya m\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m yapacaklar, yoksa Yunanistan\u2019a m\u0131? Guatemala ya da Angola\u2019ya m\u0131? Belki Papua Yeni Gine\u2019 ye, olmad\u0131 Kenya\u2019ya?T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den daha iyi se\u00e7enekleri yok denecek kadar az. Bu faizleri veren \u00fclke zaten yok? Olsa Moody\u2019s dur dese durmazlar\u2026
\nD\u00fcnya\u2019ya not ya\u011f\u0131yor da T\u00fcrkiye mi eksik kald\u0131? Hangi \u00fclkenin notu artm\u0131\u015f, merak ediyorum?
\nOyuna gelmeyelim\u2026
\nK\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemleri ekonomideki \u00fcretkenli\u011fin mevsimsel etkilerle azald\u0131\u011f\u0131, g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131, enerji faturalar\u0131n\u0131n kabard\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemdir. Bu y\u00fczden enflasyon, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 ve faiz oranlar\u0131nda nispi art\u0131\u015flar olabilir. Bu y\u00fczden panik yap\u0131p faiz lobisinin oyununa gelmeyelim.
\n\u015eimdi kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 IMF gibi ters k\u00f6\u015fe yapmam\u0131z m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Nas\u0131l 2008\u2019de IMF olmadan k\u00fcresel finans krizini atlatt\u0131ysak, ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n not k\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemi de ba\u015far\u0131yla atlataca\u011f\u0131z. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n sonu gelmedi\u011fini hep birlikte ya\u015fay\u0131p g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.
\n\u00d6nemli olan bizim yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n \u00fclkemize kar\u015f\u0131 inanc\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131 ve sorumlulu\u011funu yerine getirmesi. Hep birlikte yar\u0131ndan itibaren olu\u015fturulmak istenen havay\u0131 da\u011f\u0131tabiliriz. Bunun i\u00e7in ne yapmal\u0131y\u0131z? Bunu da Maliye Bakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131m\u0131z Say\u0131n Dr. Cengiz Yavilio\u011flu gayet iyi a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f:
\n“Darbe giri\u015fiminin finansal ve reel sekt\u00f6r \u00fczerinde do\u011furabilece\u011fi olumsuz etkileri ortadan kald\u0131rmak ve kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n do\u011furdu\u011fu olumsuz alg\u0131lar\u0131 y\u00f6netebilmek i\u00e7in her \u015feyden \u00f6nce\u2026
\nDemokratik kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n korunmas\u0131 m\u00fccadelesinin bir benzerinin ekonomik alanda da verilmesi elzemdir. Bu ba\u011flamda \u00f6ncelikle kamuoyunun bu konuda s\u00fcrekli ayd\u0131nlat\u0131lmas\u0131, k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131n s\u00fcrekli takip edilip, sorun ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131nda m\u00fcdahale edilmesi ve yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131n ilerletilmesi gerekmektedir.
\nH\u00fck\u00fcmet; reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc destekleyen kanun tasar\u0131 ve tekliflerini Meclis\u2019e g\u00f6ndererek, te\u015fvik ve destekleri art\u0131rarak, kamuya ait yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rarak durumu iyi y\u00f6netmekte, olumlu piyasa beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmektedir.
\nEn \u00f6nemli risk unsuru d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. E\u011fer yerle\u015fikler TL\u2019de kal\u0131rlarsa bu risk \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalacakt\u0131r. Bu anlamda TL\u2019de kalma konusu yerli ve milli bir duru\u015f sergileme anlam\u0131na gelmekte ve T\u00fcrk toplumu bu konuda \u00fczerine d\u00fc\u015feni fazlas\u0131yla yapmaktad\u0131r.
\nS\u00fcrecin uluslararas\u0131 aya\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok iyi takip edilmesi, kriz s\u0131ras\u0131nda ve sonras\u0131nda yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n do\u011fru bir \u015fekilde bilgilendirilmeye devam edilip, \u00f6zellikle do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00fclkeye getirilmesinde gerekli mekanizmalar\u0131n daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde etkinle\u015ftirilmesi yararl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.
\nD\u0131\u015f talepte beklenen canlanman\u0131n ya\u015fanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, turizm gelirlerinin \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geriledi\u011fi bir ortamda i\u00e7 talebi geni\u015fletecek politikalar\u0131n \u00e7e\u015fitlendirilerek geli\u015ftirilmesinin olumlu sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.
\nS&P\u2019un not indirimi yapmas\u0131ndan \u00f6nceki T\u00fcrkiye kredi notu da yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir seviyenin alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in piyasalar \u00fczerinde sars\u0131c\u0131 etki do\u011furmas\u0131 beklenmemektedir. Ancak Moody\u2019s ve Fitch\u2019in de bu s\u00fcrece dahil olarak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kredi notunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeleri halinde hisse senedi, yerel tahvil ve eurotahvil piyasalar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar olabilecektir. Bu ba\u011flamda uluslararas\u0131 derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmelerini daha objektif yapmalar\u0131 konusunda onlarla i\u015fbirli\u011fi imk\u00e2nlar\u0131 daha da art\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r.
\nB\u00fct\u00e7e disiplininden taviz verilmedi\u011fi, TCMB\u2019nin piyasada likidite s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya\u015fanmas\u0131na kesinlikle izin vermedi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bu kurulu\u015flar\u0131n olumlu tav\u0131r tak\u0131nmas\u0131 olas\u0131d\u0131r. Ancak buna ra\u011fmen s\u00f6z konusu kurulu\u015flar\u0131n art niyetli de\u011ferlendirmelerinin devam etmesi halinde ba\u015fka derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n da (\u00f6rne\u011fin Japon kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu olan JCR) bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te etkin k\u0131l\u0131nmas\u0131 yararl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. ”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Te\u015fekk\u00fcrler Moody\u2019s Bizi bir dertten kurtard\u0131n. Not art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n g\u00fcnden beri Hasan Cemal gibileri ha bug\u00fcn ha yar\u0131n notumuzu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeni bekliyordu. Nihayet karar\u0131n\u0131 verdin. Ancak\u2026 Not art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda asgari \u00fccret 800 TL\u2019ydi, notumuz d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde 1300 TL\u2026 Not art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda cari a\u00e7\u0131k y\u00fczde 10\u2019lara \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131, not d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fczde y\u00fczde 4,5\u2019lara indi\u2026 Not art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda faizler y\u00fczde 5\u2019lerden y\u00fczde 12\u2019lere t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131, not … Okumaya devam et Te\u015fekk\u00fcrler Moody\u2019s<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[32],"class_list":["post-231","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-yazilar","tag-moodys"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hasanfehmikinay.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/231"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hasanfehmikinay.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hasanfehmikinay.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hasanfehmikinay.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hasanfehmikinay.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=231"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.hasanfehmikinay.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/231\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":232,"href":"https:\/\/www.hasanfehmikinay.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/231\/revisions\/232"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hasanfehmikinay.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=231"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hasanfehmikinay.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=231"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hasanfehmikinay.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=231"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}